* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 51 49 46 44 43 43 45 47 49 49 V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 51 49 46 44 43 43 45 47 49 49 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 6 9 12 13 11 13 10 6 2 6 9 SHEAR DIR 247 269 248 218 219 214 198 190 211 210 217 168 223 SST (C) 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 115 118 120 121 120 119 119 120 124 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 32 29 24 22 25 25 27 29 34 35 35 34 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 59 48 44 50 39 18 24 18 40 42 66 76 83 LAND (KM) 1801 1876 1951 2027 2102 2231 2072 1944 1806 1643 1453 1274 1083 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.4 18.1 17.8 17.5 17.1 16.7 16.4 16.1 15.7 15.1 14.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.3 130.9 131.6 132.2 133.8 135.4 136.7 138.1 139.8 141.9 143.8 145.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 695 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. -19. -17. -14. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. -13. -11. -11. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 24.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 55.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.17 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 2.62 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)