* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 34 36 39 41 44 46 49 49 48 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 34 36 39 41 44 46 49 49 48 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 9 7 9 13 11 15 14 15 9 15 12 SHEAR DIR 97 111 108 86 104 118 111 108 118 127 141 135 146 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 151 151 147 144 145 146 145 143 142 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.6 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 56 51 52 53 55 55 58 59 66 65 63 58 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 3 0 3 0 3 1 850 MB VORT -51 -36 -22 -4 0 13 33 52 86 100 104 96 80 LAND (KM) 1062 1118 1176 1231 1286 1398 1519 1633 1746 1862 1995 2111 2215 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.6 117.2 117.8 118.3 119.7 121.6 123.1 124.4 125.8 127.6 129.1 130.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 552 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 14. 13. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.58 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 2.86 Prob of RI= 6.7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)