* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 56 57 58 57 55 52 51 49 46 42 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 56 57 58 57 55 52 51 49 46 42 SHEAR (KTS) 3 6 7 9 18 32 35 40 39 45 46 47 41 SHEAR DIR 36 353 335 315 288 282 279 284 265 247 236 232 226 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 28.0 28.4 28.4 26.7 26.5 24.2 17.8 13.9 15.0 13.1 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 142 148 148 126 124 104 78 72 74 72 72 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.4 -55.0 -55.2 -54.6 -53.3 -51.4 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 10 6 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 30 29 32 36 45 41 42 50 59 62 60 53 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -7 -11 -7 1 3 -3 -18 -1 14 -9 57 -3 850 MB VORT -77 -71 -49 -24 -16 -9 1 -14 0 40 84 117 181 LAND (KM) 566 603 635 602 571 525 573 573 357 473 931 1376 1307 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 35.0 35.9 36.8 37.7 39.1 40.0 41.4 43.6 47.0 51.6 54.9 56.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 69.3 68.6 67.4 66.2 63.2 60.1 56.4 51.9 46.6 40.8 35.0 30.1 HEAT CONTENT 9 20 31 15 31 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 570 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -17. -22. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 23. 28. 31. 31. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.60 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.54 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 4.03 Prob of RI= 12.2% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)