* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 33 39 44 50 54 58 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 33 39 44 50 54 58 61 62 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 13 10 6 5 6 8 4 8 2 9 6 SHEAR DIR 199 199 217 232 209 201 163 192 164 239 274 279 320 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 145 145 148 149 151 154 149 149 151 154 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 500-300 MB RH 38 39 40 42 44 47 48 52 48 46 50 44 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 5 4 2 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 850 MB VORT -11 -12 -12 -13 -22 -24 -21 -14 -16 -39 -31 -52 -47 LAND (KM) 1175 1186 1203 1223 1243 1280 1246 1155 1041 929 718 576 495 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.9 20.0 21.0 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.2 47.8 48.5 49.1 50.2 51.5 52.8 54.8 56.9 59.1 61.0 62.9 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 42 47 54 66 72 78 72 64 57 43 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 615 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. 39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 14. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.65 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 15.1% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)