* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 57 56 53 51 50 50 52 54 53 51 V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 57 56 53 51 50 50 52 54 53 51 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 6 9 13 11 8 12 8 5 5 9 13 SHEAR DIR 288 262 224 216 217 209 212 206 237 237 242 219 255 SST (C) 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 119 120 121 122 120 120 121 126 128 128 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 29 24 19 21 19 24 21 23 28 29 27 30 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 -1 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 45 45 45 33 17 26 14 17 14 18 26 16 23 LAND (KM) 1887 1971 2055 2131 2208 2124 1907 1715 1546 1358 1149 1048 1017 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.0 17.7 17.5 17.2 16.7 16.2 15.7 15.3 15.0 14.9 14.4 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.1 131.8 132.5 133.2 134.9 137.1 139.1 140.9 142.9 145.1 146.5 147.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 240/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 716 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -7. -9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 25.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 57.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 2.91 Prob of RI= 7.6% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)