* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 25 25 28 31 34 39 43 47 47 46 V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 25 25 28 31 34 39 43 47 47 46 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 12 11 11 14 14 15 12 11 9 14 12 SHEAR DIR 117 124 104 106 108 108 115 127 122 148 152 153 152 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 150 147 142 143 143 143 141 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 55 49 54 56 54 54 53 55 57 52 52 49 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 7 1 1 0 0 2 850 MB VORT -37 -26 -7 -4 5 16 25 50 62 80 89 79 55 LAND (KM) 1102 1161 1226 1305 1391 1506 1668 1808 1891 1998 2101 2176 2221 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.3 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.4 117.3 118.5 119.7 121.4 123.8 125.5 126.6 127.8 129.3 130.2 130.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 750 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -5. -5. -2. 1. 4. 9. 13. 17. 17. 16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.32 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 2.68 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)