* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 74 75 75 73 70 64 56 51 46 40 34 V (KT) LAND 70 73 74 75 75 73 70 64 56 51 46 40 34 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 11 17 20 30 36 37 40 46 48 43 33 SHEAR DIR 337 329 316 311 292 298 294 279 258 246 245 240 243 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.2 26.9 26.6 23.4 15.9 13.7 12.7 12.3 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 145 149 145 128 125 99 75 72 71 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.2 -52.0 -50.5 -50.6 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 10 6 6 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 28 31 34 39 38 38 46 52 54 57 59 60 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) -7 -9 -7 -2 2 -16 -5 8 25 36 32 12 10 850 MB VORT -65 -59 -29 -27 -15 14 7 10 55 112 100 94 110 LAND (KM) 585 657 639 625 634 573 602 567 270 536 1201 1369 1112 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.7 36.4 37.1 37.7 38.9 40.0 41.7 44.5 49.0 54.8 58.6 59.7 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 68.5 67.5 66.3 65.1 62.4 59.1 55.7 51.6 45.7 37.7 30.5 24.9 HEAT CONTENT 17 28 10 22 10 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 702 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -11. -19. -27. -34. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 16. 22. 27. 29. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -3. -12. -17. -22. -28. -35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -6. -14. -19. -24. -30. -36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 73.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.42 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.60 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 3.98 Prob of RI= 11.6% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)