* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 48 53 57 61 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 48 53 57 61 64 65 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 12 9 10 6 11 8 8 6 7 7 7 SHEAR DIR 205 220 238 225 214 247 189 235 229 265 263 306 276 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 146 148 149 151 152 149 148 151 154 159 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 500-300 MB RH 38 41 43 47 47 53 51 51 49 52 46 44 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 2 1 2 4 2 4 2 1 1 1 0 850 MB VORT -1 -2 -4 -16 -16 -23 -18 -9 -22 -32 -42 -55 -57 LAND (KM) 1194 1209 1227 1247 1273 1250 1182 1093 933 733 596 550 567 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.4 18.1 18.6 19.4 20.5 21.6 22.7 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 47.4 48.1 48.8 49.5 50.1 51.6 53.0 54.8 56.9 59.1 61.2 63.2 64.9 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 51 59 66 70 85 65 63 52 42 41 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 561 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 23. 29. 34. 37. 39. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.65 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 4.25 Prob of RI= 14.7% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)