* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 55 53 50 48 46 46 47 51 54 55 55 V (KT) LAND 60 58 55 53 50 48 46 46 47 51 54 55 55 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 9 12 14 10 9 8 7 3 2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 256 213 211 209 201 214 186 192 215 250 182 222 238 SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.6 26.1 26.3 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 119 121 122 122 122 121 121 122 127 129 127 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 500-300 MB RH 24 18 20 20 20 21 22 26 29 31 33 30 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 2 1 4 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 850 MB VORT 52 50 35 20 10 22 3 23 19 35 34 51 43 LAND (KM) 1973 2057 2141 2227 2206 2029 1836 1671 1509 1338 1179 1051 959 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.6 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.3 15.8 15.5 15.2 15.0 14.7 14.5 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 131.0 131.8 132.5 133.3 134.1 135.9 137.9 139.6 141.3 143.1 144.9 146.4 147.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 240/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 725 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -31 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -10. -8. -7. -5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -9. -6. -5. -5. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.52 SST (C) : Value: 25.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 60.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.23 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.03 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 2.65 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)