* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 28 28 33 39 44 49 54 55 54 52 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 28 28 33 39 44 49 54 55 54 52 SHEAR (KTS) 17 13 13 13 15 12 13 12 13 19 20 18 22 SHEAR DIR 125 127 123 126 139 113 98 68 46 21 43 49 63 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -52.4 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 500-300 MB RH 53 54 60 59 55 64 65 73 72 74 64 64 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -2 2 1 9 3 1 1 1 0 0 850 MB VORT -26 7 29 46 75 124 97 84 77 74 60 49 23 LAND (KM) 1102 1090 1077 1058 1039 1058 1045 1039 1073 1068 1045 1039 1064 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.0 14.8 15.0 15.0 14.7 14.7 15.0 15.0 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 115.4 115.3 115.3 115.3 115.3 115.4 115.3 115.4 115.3 115.4 115.3 115.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 716 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 20. 21. 21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -2. -2. 3. 9. 14. 19. 24. 25. 24. 22. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 2.70 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)