* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 79 78 73 68 61 51 46 42 36 29 V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 79 78 73 68 61 51 46 42 36 29 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 14 26 28 35 32 43 50 55 43 28 45 SHEAR DIR 336 319 313 296 306 293 295 266 253 245 243 250 259 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.2 27.5 26.8 25.5 19.3 13.6 14.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 145 149 145 135 127 114 82 72 73 70 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -52.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 5 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 31 35 38 37 36 40 48 50 48 49 49 46 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -4 0 -5 5 -7 -6 6 43 55 3 0 -7 850 MB VORT -47 -30 -33 -32 -12 -2 2 19 84 156 123 68 66 LAND (KM) 631 646 634 659 623 620 601 388 336 772 1278 1403 1153 LAT (DEG N) 35.7 36.3 36.9 37.5 38.1 39.3 40.7 43.2 46.9 51.4 56.3 59.7 60.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 67.6 66.4 65.0 63.5 60.6 57.1 53.1 48.5 43.1 36.7 30.5 25.4 HEAT CONTENT 28 14 17 14 10 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 762 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -16. -25. -35. -42. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 22. 27. 28. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. 1. -4. -12. -22. -27. -31. -38. -45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -7. -14. -24. -29. -33. -39. -46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 67.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.37 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 3.82 Prob of RI= 9.6% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)