* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 51 55 60 65 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 51 55 60 65 70 72 SHEAR (KTS) 15 11 8 9 8 3 8 6 7 1 5 3 6 SHEAR DIR 224 239 228 230 260 209 205 233 242 260 262 348 283 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 148 148 149 151 152 152 151 152 155 159 160 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 500-300 MB RH 37 40 45 43 48 51 51 48 47 51 45 47 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 0 4 6 2 2 1 4 1 0 -1 -2 850 MB VORT -11 -16 -24 -22 -31 -31 -25 -20 -38 -34 -53 -42 -68 LAND (KM) 1191 1203 1221 1233 1217 1131 1045 955 760 534 366 308 344 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.2 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.3 50.1 50.8 51.5 53.0 54.4 56.3 58.5 60.8 63.0 65.3 67.4 HEAT CONTENT 45 56 68 75 76 80 73 65 56 56 57 49 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 703 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 26. 31. 36. 41. 46. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 26. 30. 35. 40. 45. 47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 4.15 Prob of RI= 13.6% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)