* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 55 53 50 46 45 45 46 47 48 47 V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 55 53 50 46 45 45 46 47 48 47 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 10 14 15 13 16 9 9 6 6 7 11 SHEAR DIR 224 218 201 198 198 208 212 217 202 220 209 210 233 SST (C) 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.8 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 122 123 123 123 120 120 120 122 124 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 500-300 MB RH 17 20 20 17 21 17 17 22 25 28 28 29 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 0 -1 4 3 0 0 0 0 -2 850 MB VORT 49 35 13 4 14 -4 7 17 23 33 32 42 37 LAND (KM) 2053 2125 2197 2258 2208 2053 1868 1712 1555 1387 1193 1023 873 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.4 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.2 16.1 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 131.7 132.4 133.0 133.6 134.1 135.7 137.5 139.1 140.7 142.4 144.3 146.1 147.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 240/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 703 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -13. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 25.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 61.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.24 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 2.61 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)