* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 32 37 43 48 54 58 60 60 57 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 32 37 43 48 54 58 60 60 57 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 20 22 19 14 14 14 10 16 15 13 14 SHEAR DIR 117 119 120 130 125 99 77 56 52 40 55 69 74 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 52 56 53 54 60 68 74 76 75 70 73 69 67 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 1 1 4 0 0 3 5 9 1 0 0 2 850 MB VORT -3 15 35 63 99 124 110 90 84 75 63 41 33 LAND (KM) 1109 1109 1109 1109 1109 1109 1109 1109 1109 1109 1109 1109 1109 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 683 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 24. 28. 30. 30. 27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.53 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.22 Scaled RI index= 2.59 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)