* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 34 44 52 57 59 60 59 58 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 34 44 52 57 59 60 59 58 54 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 13 11 10 10 9 9 13 9 15 14 16 SHEAR DIR 83 93 103 106 102 94 113 114 138 134 147 156 156 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 155 151 147 142 139 131 130 133 133 135 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 500-300 MB RH 76 71 64 60 62 59 57 58 58 52 50 44 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 1 2 1 850 MB VORT 57 64 69 82 103 62 66 59 49 66 84 57 52 LAND (KM) 415 459 500 579 681 770 951 1175 1397 1665 1875 2082 2268 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.8 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.3 107.6 109.1 110.5 113.5 116.6 119.7 122.5 125.4 128.0 130.5 132.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 496 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 63 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 28. 33. 35. 34. 33. 33. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 24. 32. 37. 39. 40. 40. 38. 34. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.42 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 137.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 3.66 Prob of RI= 21.2% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)