* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 76 75 71 65 57 49 46 42 37 30 V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 76 75 71 65 57 49 46 42 37 30 SHEAR (KTS) 8 15 22 28 28 35 38 48 52 49 28 21 24 SHEAR DIR 304 305 290 305 305 287 271 256 243 233 228 238 238 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.4 22.8 15.7 14.1 13.2 10.7 11.9 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 151 151 145 137 134 96 75 73 72 70 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -53.2 -51.5 -50.5 -49.9 -51.0 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 36 43 39 39 43 43 51 51 55 49 60 55 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -5 0 9 -21 7 38 -12 60 21 0 -4 9 850 MB VORT -15 -26 -25 -17 2 4 13 53 122 181 156 124 96 LAND (KM) 636 630 641 631 613 600 477 215 552 984 1292 1528 1380 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 36.9 37.4 38.0 38.5 40.0 42.5 45.6 49.3 53.5 58.1 61.2 61.7 LONG(DEG W) 67.8 66.6 65.4 63.9 62.4 59.2 55.4 50.8 45.5 41.0 37.2 32.9 29.2 HEAT CONTENT 19 13 21 11 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 763 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 29 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -17. -27. -36. -43. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 18. 24. 28. 28. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 6. 8. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -18. -25. -28. -31. -36. -43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -10. -18. -26. -29. -33. -38. -45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.65 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 70.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.40 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 4.54 Prob of RI= 20.4% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)