* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 44 52 56 62 67 73 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 44 52 56 62 67 73 74 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 13 12 5 6 5 8 6 6 3 7 3 SHEAR DIR 231 214 227 258 302 189 214 223 269 211 296 202 266 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 155 157 159 160 162 160 162 165 165 165 164 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 12 13 12 500-300 MB RH 38 43 43 46 49 49 51 48 50 50 45 44 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 1 5 3 0 1 3 2 0 0 -1 0 850 MB VORT -11 -17 -18 -25 -30 -35 -33 -37 -38 -36 -44 -49 -58 LAND (KM) 1114 1114 1122 1136 1094 1002 899 825 645 372 172 200 136 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.8 19.6 20.3 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 49.3 50.1 50.8 51.6 52.4 53.8 55.4 57.3 59.6 62.2 64.8 67.2 69.6 HEAT CONTENT 59 70 74 76 76 74 72 71 67 64 61 66 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 712 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 27. 31. 37. 42. 47. 51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 27. 31. 37. 42. 48. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 4.24 Prob of RI= 14.7% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)