* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 30 28 27 25 25 26 31 38 43 45 46 V (KT) LAND 40 34 30 28 27 25 25 26 31 38 43 45 46 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 12 12 11 16 14 11 4 3 5 10 13 SHEAR DIR 201 202 200 200 198 198 228 233 240 181 229 237 250 SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.5 27.0 26.9 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 127 128 129 129 129 129 131 137 136 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 500-300 MB RH 17 17 18 19 19 18 19 24 29 29 30 24 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 -3 -1 0 0 -3 850 MB VORT 39 18 6 14 7 -9 15 20 35 36 45 36 29 LAND (KM) 2150 2222 2227 2158 2089 1920 1733 1572 1407 1250 1075 948 839 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.8 15.4 15.0 14.6 14.4 14.1 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.3 133.9 134.6 135.3 137.0 138.9 140.6 142.4 144.2 146.2 147.9 149.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 245/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 627 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. -13. -11. -8. -5. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -16. -12. -7. -4. 0. 4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -14. -9. -2. 3. 6. 6. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 2.29 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)