* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 35 40 43 48 51 53 52 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 35 40 43 48 51 53 52 50 SHEAR (KTS) 20 23 24 20 20 19 17 18 11 17 16 16 13 SHEAR DIR 118 120 128 124 116 107 100 97 91 72 70 77 79 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 149 149 149 148 147 146 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.7 -52.8 -53.6 -52.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 53 49 50 54 62 62 70 70 72 64 59 55 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 6 3 0 6 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 9 25 50 69 75 91 93 74 71 74 65 70 74 LAND (KM) 1176 1203 1230 1267 1305 1392 1495 1585 1632 1678 1727 1783 1840 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.4 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.5 116.8 117.3 117.7 118.6 119.7 120.8 121.7 122.4 123.0 123.8 124.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 250/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 613 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 13. 18. 21. 23. 22. 20. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 2.58 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)