* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 78 77 73 65 57 50 47 43 36 30 V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 78 77 73 65 57 50 47 43 36 30 SHEAR (KTS) 13 20 30 29 24 35 37 43 46 47 33 24 25 SHEAR DIR 318 302 305 304 297 289 264 250 239 233 228 229 233 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.0 21.4 15.0 15.1 12.7 10.8 11.7 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 146 139 137 129 89 74 74 71 70 70 71 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.4 -53.4 -51.3 -49.8 -48.8 -49.3 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 38 37 39 42 44 48 52 52 46 44 54 55 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -4 1 -2 -1 9 38 3 46 3 3 0 1 850 MB VORT -22 -17 -2 13 12 14 37 85 155 205 172 132 142 LAND (KM) 664 686 689 656 653 597 422 331 738 1098 1324 1550 1371 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 37.0 37.4 38.1 38.7 40.4 42.9 46.3 50.8 54.7 58.2 60.8 61.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 65.3 64.0 62.5 61.0 57.9 53.8 48.8 43.3 39.3 36.7 33.0 29.1 HEAT CONTENT 13 29 32 19 25 4 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 55/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 741 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -22. -32. -42. -50. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 2. 7. 16. 22. 27. 28. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 10. 13. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -14. -22. -29. -32. -36. -42. -49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -15. -23. -30. -33. -37. -44. -50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.48 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.63 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 64.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.34 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 4.29 Prob of RI= 15.3% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)