* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 56 62 68 72 75 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 56 62 68 72 75 76 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 11 3 0 4 3 5 2 6 2 9 5 SHEAR DIR 217 221 244 271 113 210 207 236 248 258 209 262 304 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 157 159 159 160 160 160 162 165 165 165 164 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 40 41 44 46 46 47 49 47 51 44 45 42 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 7 3 3 2 4 3 2 1 -2 -1 1 850 MB VORT -24 -21 -24 -26 -34 -35 -30 -48 -38 -50 -45 -61 -47 LAND (KM) 1106 1113 1130 1094 1047 967 891 803 570 358 223 233 184 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.6 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 49.9 50.8 51.6 52.4 53.2 54.6 56.3 58.1 60.3 62.5 64.7 66.8 68.8 HEAT CONTENT 80 86 90 91 87 86 80 78 78 74 66 67 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 627 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 30. 36. 41. 45. 49. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 31. 37. 43. 47. 50. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.4% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)