* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 27 25 25 24 26 28 34 41 44 46 46 V (KT) LAND 35 30 27 25 25 24 26 28 34 41 44 46 46 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 10 12 14 16 13 12 7 9 12 16 16 SHEAR DIR 234 222 217 211 206 226 252 261 266 239 256 251 268 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 128 128 129 128 128 130 135 136 133 133 137 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 500-300 MB RH 16 19 19 16 17 18 19 23 27 29 24 28 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 4 0 1 2 -4 0 0 -1 -1 0 850 MB VORT 31 15 14 12 1 7 12 22 33 37 33 28 16 LAND (KM) 2241 2173 2106 2031 1957 1788 1606 1429 1279 1118 971 798 655 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.0 15.6 15.2 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 133.7 134.4 135.1 135.9 136.6 138.3 140.2 142.1 143.8 145.6 147.3 149.4 151.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 718 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. -16. -14. -12. -9. -6. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -11. -6. -1. 1. 5. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -7. -1. 6. 9. 11. 11. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.38 SST (C) : Value: 26.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 92.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.56 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.91 Scaled RI index= 2.36 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)