* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 23 24 28 34 39 46 51 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 23 24 28 34 39 46 51 55 56 55 SHEAR (KTS) 20 25 24 23 20 18 16 15 12 11 12 14 15 SHEAR DIR 108 114 114 113 110 97 74 71 75 75 67 79 75 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 150 149 149 148 147 146 146 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 51 51 57 61 63 66 71 70 65 64 61 56 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 4 4 1 3 2 0 4 1 0 0 1 1 850 MB VORT 22 33 53 67 77 85 89 93 82 80 69 58 59 LAND (KM) 1212 1251 1291 1327 1363 1478 1610 1684 1718 1784 1891 1957 2002 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 116.9 117.2 117.6 117.9 119.1 120.6 121.5 122.2 123.2 124.6 125.5 126.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 245/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 677 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -1. 3. 9. 14. 21. 26. 30. 31. 30. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.27 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.19 Scaled RI index= 2.30 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)