* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 78 77 74 67 60 55 52 47 39 32 V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 78 77 74 67 60 55 52 47 39 32 SHEAR (KTS) 18 26 27 25 28 29 35 44 48 43 31 29 35 SHEAR DIR 311 304 307 299 295 269 246 230 227 228 233 237 245 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.7 25.9 16.8 14.1 14.6 12.5 11.4 12.1 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 139 138 138 118 76 73 73 71 70 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -55.0 -53.9 -52.2 -50.6 -49.1 -48.8 -48.5 -48.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 35 36 39 42 46 53 49 44 39 44 48 48 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 6 1 -3 13 11 12 -16 14 2 0 0 850 MB VORT -6 4 24 23 25 36 66 132 216 189 140 109 154 LAND (KM) 733 732 716 700 707 623 284 532 953 1284 1526 1334 1088 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 37.1 37.5 38.2 38.8 41.0 44.6 48.3 52.1 55.8 59.6 62.2 62.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 63.7 62.4 61.1 59.8 56.1 51.0 45.7 40.7 36.5 32.8 28.1 23.2 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 16 22 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 85/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -13. -24. -34. -44. -52. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 4. 9. 18. 25. 30. 32. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 11. 15. 16. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -24. -26. -32. -40. -47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -25. -28. -33. -41. -48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.60 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 61.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.32 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 4.22 Prob of RI= 14.4% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)