* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 59 64 68 72 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 59 64 68 72 73 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 11 9 6 6 5 7 5 6 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 230 252 283 277 300 275 306 250 310 256 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 159 159 160 160 159 160 162 164 164 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -55.0 -54.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 45 43 43 42 43 51 48 50 50 49 44 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 3 4 6 10 6 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -21 -23 -27 -34 -28 -30 -49 -56 -44 -48 -40 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1130 1145 1118 1073 1037 967 855 669 514 429 419 436 381 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.7 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.3 52.2 53.1 53.9 55.8 57.6 59.5 61.5 63.4 65.2 67.1 68.9 HEAT CONTENT 82 92 94 89 93 79 75 71 60 46 53 53 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 582 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 27. 33. 39. 43. 46. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 28. 34. 39. 43. 47. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 4.12 Prob of RI= 13.3% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)