* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 26 26 27 30 33 37 42 44 44 43 V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 26 26 27 30 33 37 42 44 44 43 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 12 16 18 19 13 14 14 16 19 19 14 SHEAR DIR 241 241 229 223 221 251 253 250 244 245 246 257 268 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 126 125 124 125 128 129 128 130 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 16 17 17 17 18 20 25 28 27 28 25 25 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 3 3 0 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 850 MB VORT 24 21 9 -2 -3 8 10 27 28 36 26 16 0 LAND (KM) 2145 2071 1997 1905 1814 1602 1419 1239 1028 831 637 476 352 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.4 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 134.6 135.4 136.1 137.0 137.9 140.0 141.9 143.8 146.0 148.1 150.2 152.2 153.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 778 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -24 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -3. 0. 4. 5. 7. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 7. 12. 14. 14. 13. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.13 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.53 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)