* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 71 70 68 62 57 56 56 53 47 40 V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 71 70 68 62 57 56 56 53 47 40 SHEAR (KTS) 21 27 25 29 32 32 41 44 47 43 42 39 38 SHEAR DIR 310 305 302 299 303 280 260 239 232 226 225 224 228 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.7 24.4 16.2 15.6 13.6 12.5 12.0 12.2 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 138 135 138 106 75 74 72 71 71 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9 -53.4 -52.8 -49.6 -48.3 -46.0 -46.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 39 42 44 48 53 52 54 55 52 37 34 42 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 -1 0 7 4 0 57 23 -10 -16 -6 -4 850 MB VORT 8 17 22 41 35 60 75 144 198 234 189 185 191 LAND (KM) 777 774 787 766 734 580 363 712 1207 1476 1398 1242 1001 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 36.9 37.1 38.0 38.9 41.5 45.1 49.3 53.8 56.8 58.4 60.1 60.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 62.8 61.5 60.0 58.5 54.4 49.0 43.3 37.6 33.6 31.1 27.1 22.4 HEAT CONTENT 34 16 16 20 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 85/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 610 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 3 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -6. -15. -25. -34. -43. -50. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 6. 12. 21. 28. 33. 34. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -14. -18. -19. -17. -20. -26. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -13. -18. -19. -19. -22. -28. -35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.40 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 64.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.34 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 3.96 Prob of RI= 11.3% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)