* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 54 59 64 68 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 54 59 64 68 71 73 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 8 6 6 6 8 2 7 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 251 283 276 281 280 287 262 286 325 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 160 160 157 157 159 160 162 162 162 160 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 42 42 42 43 47 52 48 51 47 48 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 7 10 7 5 6 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -24 -27 -34 -28 -29 -34 -53 -38 -64 -57 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1134 1129 1077 1048 1033 942 774 692 699 732 784 772 743 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.3 17.9 19.3 20.8 22.3 23.7 24.7 25.5 26.0 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 51.1 52.1 53.0 53.9 54.8 56.8 58.8 60.6 62.2 63.6 65.0 66.7 68.7 HEAT CONTENT 91 97 90 92 83 77 63 54 46 39 37 39 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 619 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 29. 34. 40. 43. 47. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 29. 34. 39. 43. 46. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.06 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 4.27 Prob of RI= 15.0% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)