* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 40 46 51 53 52 52 51 49 46 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 40 46 51 53 52 52 51 49 46 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 12 15 11 12 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 74 79 93 93 76 102 120 140 141 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 147 143 141 140 133 129 124 122 125 124 125 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 66 62 61 58 62 56 55 50 45 37 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 38 25 29 24 29 35 70 74 76 54 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 486 546 570 632 714 924 1097 1294 1508 1682 1842 2025 2233 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.4 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.9 112.2 113.5 114.8 117.6 120.0 122.3 124.5 126.7 128.7 130.8 133.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 562 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 24. 23. 22. 21. 20. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 15. 21. 26. 28. 27. 27. 26. 24. 21. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.32 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.03 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 2.89 Prob of RI= 7.1% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)