* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 71 69 68 65 60 57 56 56 52 46 39 V (KT) LAND 75 73 71 69 68 65 60 57 56 56 52 46 39 SHEAR (KTS) 23 24 29 31 25 36 46 46 40 41 36 29 30 SHEAR DIR 311 302 300 308 306 274 250 233 223 231 227 227 227 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 23.7 14.3 14.8 13.2 12.3 11.8 12.3 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 137 135 137 101 73 73 72 71 70 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -52.7 -50.7 -48.8 -47.2 -44.8 -45.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 43 46 45 50 50 48 56 57 41 36 39 46 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 -2 0 -12 1 2 49 54 3 12 2 0 -1 850 MB VORT 18 19 34 33 46 60 111 176 232 206 165 195 177 LAND (KM) 795 786 787 780 769 555 495 987 1331 1453 1369 1188 927 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 37.0 37.3 37.9 38.5 41.7 47.5 51.9 55.0 57.6 60.3 62.4 62.8 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 62.0 61.0 59.9 58.8 53.7 46.2 40.1 35.7 32.3 29.4 25.2 19.6 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 19 16 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 650 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -16. -26. -35. -45. -51. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 8. 14. 24. 31. 35. 35. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -14. -17. -18. -17. -21. -27. -35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -15. -18. -19. -19. -23. -29. -36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 62.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.32 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 3.76 Prob of RI= 8.8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)