* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 39 45 53 57 62 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 39 45 53 57 62 65 68 70 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 10 10 8 7 7 5 4 3 9 4 9 SHEAR DIR 227 241 255 277 298 273 311 280 317 358 354 5 352 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 160 160 157 157 159 160 162 164 162 162 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 42 40 42 43 44 47 50 51 48 45 45 41 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 4 10 9 9 5 3 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 850 MB VORT -32 -32 -24 -22 -19 -33 -44 -46 -62 -72 -84 -65 -55 LAND (KM) 1135 1084 1045 1028 1027 866 738 677 695 732 766 721 711 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.8 21.3 22.7 24.0 24.9 25.4 25.8 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.9 52.9 53.8 54.8 55.7 57.6 59.4 61.2 62.8 64.3 65.7 67.5 69.5 HEAT CONTENT 96 87 93 83 73 75 53 57 39 38 39 50 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 626 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 27. 33. 38. 41. 44. 47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 20. 28. 32. 37. 40. 43. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.15 Scaled RI index= 4.11 Prob of RI= 13.1% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)