* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 45 44 44 43 43 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 45 44 44 43 43 43 SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 18 14 13 11 11 13 10 11 9 15 11 SHEAR DIR 70 81 86 91 86 94 97 124 133 126 139 132 138 SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.8 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 141 141 138 133 128 124 127 127 127 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 64 62 60 63 62 51 52 49 51 43 36 32 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -3 -4 -3 0 1 1 0 2 -3 -1 -2 1 850 MB VORT 30 25 18 21 20 38 57 72 75 63 37 37 45 LAND (KM) 546 563 615 719 836 1050 1259 1478 1678 1841 2022 2214 2105 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.7 17.5 17.2 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.9 113.3 114.7 116.1 119.0 121.6 124.0 126.3 128.4 130.5 132.8 135.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 583 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.15 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.25 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.82 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.03 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.73 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 2.93 Prob of RI= 7.9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)