* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 85 84 82 75 68 64 59 56 50 42 34 V (KT) LAND 85 86 85 84 82 75 68 64 59 56 50 42 34 SHEAR (KTS) 18 24 26 23 31 35 37 39 41 40 39 35 36 SHEAR DIR 310 303 309 302 283 259 231 211 215 236 228 226 204 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.5 20.3 14.6 14.2 12.9 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 134 134 135 85 73 73 71 71 71 71 72 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -52.6 -51.6 -48.8 -48.9 -47.7 -47.4 -47.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 500-300 MB RH 41 43 47 53 52 54 49 47 32 40 51 52 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -3 -10 0 -7 23 42 11 -23 4 -12 -18 5 850 MB VORT 42 38 38 47 48 64 158 232 254 203 166 166 134 LAND (KM) 832 829 836 821 773 451 599 1095 1476 1245 1075 932 774 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 36.9 37.2 38.1 38.9 42.8 48.4 52.7 56.2 58.8 60.1 60.1 58.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 61.1 60.1 58.7 57.2 51.5 44.8 38.8 33.5 28.2 24.1 21.5 19.1 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 9 14 20 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 588 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -11. -22. -34. -45. -56. -64. -70. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. 3. 10. 19. 27. 32. 33. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -18. -22. -26. -28. -34. -41. -49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -1. -3. -10. -17. -21. -26. -29. -35. -43. -51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.45 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.53 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 50.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 4.37 Prob of RI= 16.3% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)