* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 51 54 57 60 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 51 54 57 60 64 66 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 12 10 8 11 6 9 6 8 8 9 10 SHEAR DIR 236 227 250 276 290 291 327 299 330 337 30 18 26 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 160 159 159 160 160 162 164 162 157 152 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 39 38 39 44 44 46 53 48 52 44 45 40 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 8 10 7 6 5 2 2 0 0 -5 -2 -5 850 MB VORT -30 -23 -22 -16 -19 -52 -39 -66 -62 -88 -72 -76 -47 LAND (KM) 1032 994 972 973 938 779 638 606 621 690 717 793 883 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.7 20.0 21.6 22.8 23.7 24.7 25.8 26.8 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 54.3 55.2 56.0 56.8 58.5 60.7 62.4 63.8 65.5 67.6 69.1 70.0 HEAT CONTENT 87 89 82 77 77 73 51 53 39 44 50 29 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 736 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -30 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 26. 29. 34. 37. 40. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 26. 29. 32. 35. 39. 41. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 4.25 Prob of RI= 14.8% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)