* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 42 43 43 42 40 37 34 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 42 43 43 42 40 37 34 SHEAR (KTS) 18 21 17 13 12 6 4 5 1 4 6 13 14 SHEAR DIR 61 71 86 82 74 91 58 152 235 164 146 167 178 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.8 25.9 25.1 24.3 23.6 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 139 138 135 125 117 108 101 98 97 97 98 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 69 67 66 64 56 52 44 43 38 31 30 28 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) -10 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 850 MB VORT 42 29 21 17 22 38 52 51 27 22 5 -8 -31 LAND (KM) 527 531 570 667 778 900 1042 1166 1267 1408 1561 1729 1861 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 18.8 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.7 21.4 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 112.0 113.3 114.7 116.0 118.4 120.5 122.3 124.1 126.1 128.3 130.6 133.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 794 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -19. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 10. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. 9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.07 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.18 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.13 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.50 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 2.61 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)