* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 78 77 70 65 62 56 50 40 29 21 V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 78 77 70 65 62 56 50 40 29 21 SHEAR (KTS) 20 25 22 21 30 36 38 44 22 12 6 5 28 SHEAR DIR 302 311 300 296 276 240 214 194 187 181 207 288 316 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.3 26.6 18.1 15.9 13.2 10.6 10.1 11.0 11.2 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 132 133 125 79 75 72 70 69 70 70 71 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -51.9 -47.9 -44.3 -43.7 -43.7 -44.5 -46.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 43 46 50 49 47 50 44 30 47 59 60 56 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -5 0 -8 -10 10 89 0 -9 -3 -3 0 -3 850 MB VORT 38 43 56 62 66 81 188 309 250 200 182 167 153 LAND (KM) 867 873 891 816 775 441 741 1053 1126 1320 1400 1510 1386 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 37.0 37.4 38.6 39.8 43.9 49.4 53.7 57.4 60.0 61.0 60.5 58.4 LONG(DEG W) 61.0 59.8 58.6 56.9 55.1 49.1 42.9 40.0 39.7 38.2 36.1 34.4 30.9 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 10 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 594 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -23. -34. -44. -55. -62. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -18. -23. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -10. -16. -18. -23. -29. -38. -49. -58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -3. -10. -15. -18. -24. -30. -40. -51. -59. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 51.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 4.11 Prob of RI= 13.1% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)