* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 51 54 57 61 64 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 51 54 57 61 64 67 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 11 10 9 14 8 13 13 12 10 11 4 SHEAR DIR 233 245 277 292 282 318 317 338 329 356 31 43 79 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 160 160 162 165 165 165 164 164 164 165 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 500-300 MB RH 38 40 45 46 45 55 57 56 54 50 48 49 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 6 5 4 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 850 MB VORT -36 -35 -34 -31 -36 -56 -36 -50 -46 -49 -37 -44 -35 LAND (KM) 972 917 873 845 804 550 342 250 300 230 225 235 220 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.0 55.9 57.0 58.1 60.5 62.8 64.9 66.9 68.8 70.6 72.3 73.7 HEAT CONTENT 88 85 85 82 79 78 76 61 55 74 59 59 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 677 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 25. 28. 32. 35. 39. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 26. 29. 32. 36. 39. 42. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 136.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.12 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.38 Prob of RI= 16.5% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)