* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 37 37 36 34 31 27 23 18 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 37 37 36 34 31 27 23 18 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 15 10 9 4 6 3 4 6 12 15 25 SHEAR DIR 69 69 61 65 73 9 41 351 94 153 144 164 174 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.4 24.4 23.7 23.0 22.5 22.3 22.9 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 138 135 129 120 110 102 95 90 88 94 96 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 65 65 67 55 48 46 40 33 24 22 19 22 16 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 1 2 4 0 850 MB VORT 53 39 31 37 34 42 39 28 19 10 -12 -23 -50 LAND (KM) 540 572 630 712 769 868 958 1042 1107 1219 1352 1544 1690 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.6 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.0 114.2 115.5 116.7 118.6 120.2 121.6 123.1 124.8 126.8 129.2 131.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 661 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 32 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -21. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. -4. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 2. -2. -7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.27 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.10 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.13 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.35 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 2.66 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)