* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 66 64 61 53 50 47 46 44 39 33 27 V (KT) LAND 75 70 66 64 61 53 50 47 46 44 39 33 27 SHEAR (KTS) 21 17 17 21 24 31 34 36 38 32 22 22 N/A SHEAR DIR 308 306 291 275 258 214 198 201 221 224 229 261 9999 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.1 25.3 16.0 13.8 12.3 12.0 12.1 13.0 14.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 131 113 75 72 71 71 71 71 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -51.9 -50.1 -47.8 -48.5 -46.1 -46.7 -47.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A 500-300 MB RH 45 45 45 42 46 35 44 27 51 56 52 55 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 -1 -2 3 28 22 12 0 -6 1 -6 N/A 850 MB VORT 45 49 61 67 55 96 225 227 178 120 121 60 N/A LAND (KM) 882 904 931 846 688 482 1110 1502 1360 1313 1299 1133 N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.5 36.8 37.1 38.8 40.5 45.7 53.2 57.3 58.7 59.0 56.9 55.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.6 59.5 58.3 55.7 53.0 47.0 38.8 33.3 30.3 29.3 29.9 27.4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 667 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -14. -24. -34. -43. -53. -59. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 30. 35. 37. 36. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -15. -19. -22. -25. -28. -34. -41. -47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -11. -14. -22. -25. -28. -29. -31. -36. -42. -48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.41 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 52.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.23 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.21 Scaled RI index= 2.70 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)