* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 47 51 54 57 61 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 47 51 54 57 61 63 SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 11 12 14 12 16 10 12 10 10 9 10 SHEAR DIR 245 268 284 271 286 328 309 329 328 13 27 55 44 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 160 162 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 39 41 42 44 48 59 57 60 53 54 49 51 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 6 5 1 1 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -2 850 MB VORT -45 -47 -42 -41 -52 -46 -68 -54 -74 -65 -80 -57 -53 LAND (KM) 883 826 790 761 634 391 290 355 364 380 444 441 382 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.0 19.2 20.7 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.3 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.2 57.4 58.6 59.7 62.1 64.5 66.4 67.9 69.5 71.2 73.2 75.4 HEAT CONTENT 86 85 85 75 79 73 60 43 57 53 50 58 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 278/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 663 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 30. 33. 36. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 32. 36. 38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 136.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 4.25 Prob of RI= 14.8% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)