* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 36 35 34 33 30 27 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 36 35 34 33 30 27 22 SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 11 9 4 6 2 3 3 4 12 14 20 SHEAR DIR 61 48 60 70 95 359 28 354 161 172 177 169 188 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.2 24.4 23.6 23.0 22.5 22.7 23.1 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 136 131 126 118 110 101 95 90 92 96 97 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 500-300 MB RH 66 65 56 55 49 41 33 27 22 20 18 19 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 3 1 1 850 MB VORT 51 33 37 35 37 43 48 15 20 6 -10 -33 -32 LAND (KM) 578 636 714 767 814 923 1008 1091 1190 1325 1474 1694 1821 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.3 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 114.1 115.3 116.4 117.4 119.3 120.7 122.2 123.9 126.0 128.1 130.7 133.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 617 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -3. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.03 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.05 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.26 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.18 Scaled RI index= 2.30 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)