* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 60 58 56 52 51 48 45 41 37 32 26 V (KT) LAND 65 61 60 58 56 52 51 48 45 41 37 32 26 SHEAR (KTS) 19 22 20 31 32 37 32 29 24 14 45 61 N/A SHEAR DIR 304 291 271 250 229 197 207 186 188 233 293 324 9999 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 24.7 18.9 15.1 10.8 12.1 12.0 10.3 12.8 15.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 108 81 74 70 71 71 70 71 74 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -53.6 -51.1 -50.4 -47.3 -44.7 -45.3 -52.3 -55.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 46 46 44 44 44 38 54 38 57 59 70 52 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -5 -2 0 12 77 -4 20 -8 -2 -15 -20 N/A 850 MB VORT 56 65 89 76 88 177 173 156 181 104 -19 -59 N/A LAND (KM) 916 886 847 639 458 681 1402 1504 1475 1321 823 682 N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.7 38.5 41.0 43.4 49.8 58.5 62.2 61.8 59.5 53.5 48.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.2 57.8 56.3 53.0 49.6 43.8 35.5 32.0 33.2 37.7 43.5 43.7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 11 12 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 80/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 675 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -15. -24. -32. -39. -48. -52. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. 23. 30. 36. 41. 42. 40. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -6. -4. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 20. 20. 17. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -13. -16. -18. -23. -26. -32. -38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -14. -17. -20. -24. -28. -33. -39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 25.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.12 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 51.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.77 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 2.75 Prob of RI= 3.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)