* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 49 53 58 61 66 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 49 53 58 61 66 70 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 14 15 17 11 12 10 9 4 6 1 4 SHEAR DIR 248 263 257 278 313 300 323 309 337 307 23 290 19 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 160 162 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 500-300 MB RH 39 39 41 48 53 58 59 56 53 51 48 46 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 7 6 0 5 3 0 1 0 1 2 1 0 850 MB VORT -43 -38 -38 -48 -50 -39 -49 -52 -66 -53 -66 -48 -45 LAND (KM) 853 803 771 696 570 324 231 300 292 297 379 357 342 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.3 20.4 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.3 23.9 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.7 56.9 58.0 59.2 60.3 62.8 65.1 66.8 68.2 70.0 72.3 74.1 75.6 HEAT CONTENT 85 85 85 74 88 78 63 53 66 51 58 60 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 627 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 33. 36. 41. 46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 33. 36. 41. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 136.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.07 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 4.04 Prob of RI= 12.2% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)