* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 30 28 27 25 21 16 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 30 28 27 25 21 16 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 9 3 6 6 5 3 2 8 9 19 18 SHEAR DIR 45 38 49 54 347 16 302 309 259 164 172 172 199 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.8 24.7 23.9 23.1 22.6 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 135 129 124 113 104 96 91 88 93 96 96 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 67 62 54 54 49 39 33 24 20 16 19 16 15 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 0 3 850 MB VORT 41 39 33 33 33 37 30 10 -1 -12 -30 -57 -48 LAND (KM) 621 668 731 768 811 896 1000 1070 1194 1338 1535 1698 1835 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.4 22.1 22.5 23.1 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.5 115.6 116.6 117.6 119.4 121.0 122.6 124.5 126.7 129.1 131.8 134.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 572 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -4. -9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.17 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.01 Scaled RI index= 2.31 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)