* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 57 55 53 53 54 52 47 43 38 32 27 V (KT) LAND 60 57 57 55 53 53 54 52 47 43 38 32 27 SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 28 32 32 42 28 24 13 15 51 14 N/A SHEAR DIR 295 268 245 232 215 194 225 211 192 308 321 23 9999 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.4 19.5 15.1 12.5 12.0 7.3 10.6 8.9 15.1 26.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 123 83 74 71 71 68 70 69 74 124 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.3 -50.0 -51.1 -46.6 -43.2 -47.1 -56.3 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 N/A 500-300 MB RH 47 45 48 49 43 47 54 39 64 56 55 42 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 7 6 18 19 11 0 8 -15 -5 -13 14 N/A 850 MB VORT 69 76 78 110 115 235 142 182 181 82 -128 -89 N/A LAND (KM) 894 844 768 447 458 967 1454 1427 1320 980 119 1069 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.7 38.8 39.8 43.1 46.3 54.3 63.3 66.3 63.6 57.9 47.0 37.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.3 55.8 54.3 50.7 47.1 41.3 31.7 29.4 34.3 42.7 51.4 52.1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 13 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 0 0 5 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 70/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 30 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -4. -7. -16. -24. -32. -38. -46. -49. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 21. 29. 34. 40. 44. 42. 39. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -16. -15. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 20. 16. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -26. -32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -8. -13. -17. -22. -28. -33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.40 SST (C) : Value: 23.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 48.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.19 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.71 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 2.69 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)