* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 37 43 48 52 55 57 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 37 43 48 52 55 57 60 62 SHEAR (KTS) 13 18 17 15 10 17 10 9 12 10 14 9 10 SHEAR DIR 256 251 274 296 297 296 312 344 37 35 60 53 69 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 162 164 164 165 165 165 165 160 157 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 36 38 44 51 57 53 62 50 52 47 46 38 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 6 4 5 8 3 1 3 5 4 0 -7 0 850 MB VORT -44 -45 -53 -48 -37 -62 -49 -75 -68 -80 -51 -60 -31 LAND (KM) 876 867 748 637 537 403 389 465 469 529 611 698 703 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.8 21.9 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.3 26.3 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.5 58.6 59.7 60.8 62.9 65.1 67.1 68.8 70.0 70.9 71.9 73.0 HEAT CONTENT 80 81 70 74 68 60 59 57 60 44 44 46 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 592 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 31. 33. 36. 39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 4.13 Prob of RI= 13.4% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)