* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 40 45 53 60 67 71 73 74 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 40 45 53 60 67 71 73 74 76 75 SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 14 12 13 7 7 4 5 5 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 61 63 59 50 44 14 20 4 42 3 347 344 39 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.2 28.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 151 156 161 164 165 165 160 147 140 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.8 -54.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 11 10 11 8 6 500-300 MB RH 79 80 83 79 74 74 70 70 68 66 61 62 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 2 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 2 850 MB VORT 110 119 117 113 104 79 66 57 51 47 66 64 82 LAND (KM) 388 420 410 406 405 368 361 263 259 275 400 569 663 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.2 11.2 12.5 13.7 15.0 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.3 89.7 90.1 90.8 91.4 93.2 95.6 98.6 101.6 104.7 107.9 111.2 114.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 492 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 114 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 35. 41. 45. 47. 49. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 35. 42. 46. 48. 49. 51. 50. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.16 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.89 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 4.56 Prob of RI= 40.9% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)