* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 51 49 50 50 48 40 38 32 27 21 V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 51 49 50 50 48 40 38 32 27 21 SHEAR (KTS) 21 27 32 33 37 35 27 19 10 55 29 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 255 230 218 204 202 192 190 294 309 337 9999 9999 SST (C) 27.0 24.0 18.7 14.7 15.1 10.5 11.5 10.9 8.6 12.8 15.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 103 80 73 74 70 70 70 69 71 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -51.3 -51.0 -47.3 -44.1 -44.8 -55.5 -55.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 45 52 52 49 45 59 43 60 60 58 55 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 17 26 76 47 12 0 -15 7 -39 -3 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 70 52 79 119 201 183 232 163 117 -116 -124 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 895 638 481 500 697 1391 1367 1330 1084 506 458 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 41.0 43.6 47.0 50.3 59.4 62.9 61.9 58.8 51.7 46.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.4 52.1 48.8 46.3 43.7 36.3 34.1 36.3 41.6 47.4 47.2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 710 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -7. -11. -20. -28. -36. -42. -49. -53. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 4. 7. 16. 25. 31. 35. 43. 45. 46. 43. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -15. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -26. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 19. 15. 16. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -8. -16. -20. -26. -31. -38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -11. -10. -10. -12. -20. -22. -28. -33. -39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.31 SST (C) : Value: 19.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 32.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.04 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.20 Scaled RI index= 1.96 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)