* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 49 52 55 58 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 49 52 55 58 61 62 SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 12 9 12 10 7 11 13 17 16 19 11 SHEAR DIR 250 267 284 265 247 300 300 5 29 18 13 15 351 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 159 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 12 11 12 500-300 MB RH 45 46 51 54 55 59 57 49 47 51 50 51 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 4 0 0 0 2 5 4 -1 -11 6 3 0 850 MB VORT -50 -56 -56 -46 -51 -57 -65 -73 -69 -53 -22 -29 -8 LAND (KM) 795 709 590 474 375 294 383 383 462 533 605 643 673 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.8 22.0 23.0 23.9 24.6 25.3 26.1 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.9 59.0 60.1 61.3 62.4 64.6 66.9 68.8 70.1 71.1 71.8 72.6 73.3 HEAT CONTENT 83 71 81 73 74 65 46 60 45 50 51 51 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 643 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 137.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 4.49 Prob of RI= 19.2% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)