* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 42 47 56 64 71 74 75 72 72 69 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 42 47 56 64 71 74 75 72 72 69 SHEAR (KTS) 17 14 12 11 7 6 6 4 4 8 4 9 15 SHEAR DIR 54 48 41 36 11 336 288 316 349 15 360 60 92 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.4 28.4 27.6 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 153 154 158 161 163 162 151 143 138 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -51.7 -52.4 -51.1 -51.9 -50.7 -51.6 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 12 9 11 8 5 3 3 500-300 MB RH 80 82 79 74 73 70 66 71 65 64 56 57 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -14 -3 -3 850 MB VORT 109 110 106 102 87 76 76 79 75 78 108 128 161 LAND (KM) 393 401 410 394 388 414 322 340 403 662 832 1151 1436 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.0 12.0 13.2 14.6 16.0 16.9 17.3 17.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.9 91.5 92.4 93.2 95.7 98.8 102.5 106.5 110.8 115.3 119.6 122.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 542 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 152 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 22. 31. 39. 44. 46. 45. 44. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 17. 22. 31. 39. 46. 49. 50. 47. 47. 44. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 4.73 Prob of RI= 49.2% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)